Investitsiya_uz|NYSE Amerika fond birjasi

2023-01-10 05:00:20 Kim buni tushundi

Who understands this

#meme Ochish/sharhlash

2023-01-08 04:20:32 "Investitsiya qilish ko'proq bo'yoqning qurishini tomosha qilish yoki o't o'sishini kuzatish kabi bo'lishi kerak. Agar hayajonlanishni istasangiz, 800 dollar olib, Las-Vegasga boring”.

- Pol Samuelson -
Amerikalik Iqtisodchi, Iqtisod fanlari bo'yicha Nobel mukofoti laureati va "XXI asrning eng yirik akademik iqtisodchisi"

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”

- Paul Samuelson -
American Economist, laureate of Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences and "Foremost academic economist of the 21th century"

#quote #citation #motivoftheweek

More about Paul Samuelson:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson Ochish/sharhlash

2023-01-05 15:14:56 Qimorbozning xatosining eng mashhur misoli 1913 yilda Monte-Karlo kazinosining ruletka stollarida bo'lib o'tgan. Ruletka g'ildiragining so'nggi 10 marta aylanishida to'p qora rangga ketma-ket tushgan. Ushbu tendentsiya davom etar ekan, o'yinchilar keyingi navbat qizil rangga tushishiga tobora ko'proq ishonch hosil qilishdi. Olomon va pul tikish ko'paydi - va ularning yo'qotishlari ham ko'paydi. Qimorbozlar qizil rangni uzoq vaqtdan beri o'ylaganligi sababli, ular qora rangga pul tikishgan. Ammo to'p qora rangga tushishda davom etdi. Ketma-ket 26 ta qora rangdan keyin  qizil rangga tushgan va seriya yakunlangan. Bu vaqtga kelib, yo'qotishlar dahshatli bo'lib bo'lgan. Natijada Kazino boylib ketgan. Ochish/sharhlash

2023-01-05 15:14:10 The most famous example of gambler’s fallacy took place at the roulette tables of a Monte Carlo casino in 1913. For the last 10 spins of the roulette wheel, the ball had landed on black.
Because the gamblers thought a red was long overdue, they started betting against black. But the ball kept on landing on black. It was only after 26 consecutive blacks that the ball finally landed on red and the streak came to an end. By this time, the losses were staggering. The casino had made a fortune.  Ochish/sharhlash

2023-01-05 15:12:10 "Qimorbozning xatosi" nima?

Qimorbozning xatosi, shuningdek, Monte-Karlo xatosi ham deyiladi, bu insonlarning psixologiyasi bilan bog'liq bo'lgan hodisa bo'lib, biror bir shaxsning ma'lum bir chegaralangan ehtimollikga ega hodisaning, bir necha marta takrorlasa, undan keladigan natija bir xil bo'lishini rad etishii, ya'ni keyingi bo'ladigan teskari natijaning ehtimolligini yuqori deb hisoblashiga aytiladi.

Bunday hodisa bo'lishining asosiy sababi odamlar qaror qabul qilayotganda ko'pincha ketma-ketlikka e'tibor beradi va ko'p hollarda ehtimollik nazariyasi va Random Walk Theory-ni inobatga olishmaydi. Bundan tashqari odamlarning xulq-atvori kichik hodisalardan hayratlanarli natijalar ro'y berishiga ishonishlaridir, xuddi 1 dollarlik lottoreya chiptasidan 1 million dollar yutishga ishonib lottoreya o'ynashganlaridek.

Masalan, bilamizki tanganing ikki tomoni bor, raqamli va suratli. Bu degani tanga tashlanganda 50% ehtimollik bilan raqamli tomonga va 50% ehtimollik bilan suratli tomonga tushishi mumkinligini ko'rsatadi. Demak, biz tangani tashlasak 50% ehtimollik bilan raqamli tomoni yoki 50% ehtimollik bilan suratli tomoni tushadi, ya'ni ikkalasidan birining tushishi aniq va ehtimolliklar teng. Agar birinchi marotiba tanga tashlansa va raqamli tomoni tushsa, ikkinchi (uchinchi, to'rtinchi .... n-inchi) marta tashlanganda yana ikkala hodisaning ehtimolligi teng bo'ladi. Bu yerda qimorbozning xatosi, agar tanga ikki marta tashlanganda ham raqamli tomoni tushsa, demak keyingi marotiba tashlanganda katta ehtimollik bilan suratli tomoni tushadi deb o'ylaydi. Ochish/sharhlash

2023-01-05 15:12:02 What is the "Gambler's Fallacy"?

The Gambler's Fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect, since past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.

The main reason for this phenomenon is that people often focus on the sequence when making decisions and often do not consider probability theory and Random Walk Theory. Also, people's behavior is to believe that small events can produce surprising results, just as they play the lottery believing they will win $1 million from a $1 lottery ticket.

For example, we know that a coin has two sides, head and tail. This means that when a coin is tossed, there is a 50% probability that it will land on the tail side and 50% on the head side. So, if we toss a coin, there is a 50% probability that it will come up with a tail side or with a 50% probability that it will come up with a head, that is, one of the two is certain and the probabilities are equal. If a coin is tossed the first time and the tail side lands, then the second (third, fourth ... n-th) toss will have the same probability of both events. The gambler's fallacy here is to think that if the coin comes up numbers twice, then the next toss will most likely come up heads. Ochish/sharhlash

2023-01-03 09:43:22 Demak, Random Walk Theory bu xuddi spirtli ichimlik ichgan odamni qaysi joyda oyoq qo'yishini aytishga o'xshaydi. Anglash mumkinki, ichgan odam xohlagan joyga qadam qo'yishi mumkin va uning qayerga qadam qo'yishini oldindan aytish imkonsizdir. Bu nazariya moliyaviy bozorlarni analiz qilib, mukammal prognoz qilish imkoniyati yo'qligini ko'rsatadi. Lekin odamlarning psixologiyasi har bir narsaning ketma-ketligini (patternlarni) aniqlashga urinadi. Kechagi misollardaham xohlagan raqamlar bo'lishi mumkin lekin agar ketma-ketlikni ko'rsangiz yuqori ehtimollik bilan birinchisi 1088, ikkinchisi sariq rang, uchinchisi tapaga o'sishini aytish mumkin. Moliyaviy bozorlarda bitta mashhur gap bor:

"Tarix o'z-o'zini takrorlamaydi lekin insonlarning xulq-atvori tarixning takrorlanishiga olib keladi"

Xulosa, bu nazariya bir tomondan xato deb hisoblanishi mumkin va hatto katta ehtimollik bilan siz aktivlar harakatini to'g'ri prognoz qilishingiz mumkin, lekin o'sha aktiv xohlagan payt xohlagan tomonga hararakatini o'gartishirga qodir. Ochish/sharhlash

2023-01-03 09:43:04 So, Random Walk Theory is like telling a drunk person where to put their feet before he is moved. It can be understood that a drunk person can step wherever he wants, and it is impossible to predict where he will step. This theory shows that it is not possible to analyze financial markets and make perfect forecasts. But human psychology tries to determine the sequence (patterns) of everything. In yesterday's examples all numbers could be right, but if you look at the sequence, you can say with high probability, the first one is 1088, the second one is yellow, and the third one is chart is gonna up. There is a famous saying in the financial markets:

"History does not repeat itself, but the behavior of people causes history to repeat itself"

In conclusion, this theory can be considered wrong on the one hand, and even with a high probability, you can correctly forecast the movement of assets, but that asset can change its movement in any direction any time. Ochish/sharhlash

2023-01-03 09:42:38 Tasodifiy yurish nazariyasi nima?

Tasodifiy yurish nazariyasi aksiya bahosidagi o'zgarishlar bir xil taqsimotga ega va bir-biridan mustaqil ekanligini ko'rsatadi. U qimmatli qog'ozlar narxi yoki bozorning o'tmishdagi harakati yoki tendentsiyasini uning kelajakdagi harakatini bashorat qilish uchun ishlatib bo'lmasligini ko'rsatadi. 

Tasodifiy yurish nazariyasi, qo'shimcha xavfni o'z zimmasiga olmasdan, bozordan yaxshi natija ko'rsatish mumkin emas deb hisoblaydi. U texnik tahlilni ishonchsiz deb hisoblaydi, chunki chartistlar aktivni faqat belgilangan tendentsiya rivojlanganidan keyin sotib oladi yoki sotadi. Shunga o'xshab, nazariya to'plangan ma'lumotlarning sifatsizligi va noto'g'ri talqin qilinishi tufayli fundamental tahlilni ham ishonchsiz deb topadi. Nazariya tanqidchilari aktivlar vaqt o'tishi bilan narx tendentsiyalarini saqlab turishini ta'kidlaydilar, boshqacha qilib aytganda, investitsiyalar uchun kirish va chiqish nuqtalarini sinchkovlik bilan tanlab, bozordan o'zib ketish mumkin deyiladi. Ochish/sharhlash

2023-01-03 09:42:38 What Is the Random Walk Theory?

Random walk theory suggests that changes in stock prices have the same distribution and are independent of each other. It assumes the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement. In short, random walk theory proclaims that stocks take a random and unpredictable path that makes all methods of predicting stock prices futile in the long run.

Random walk theory believes it's impossible to outperform the market without assuming additional risk. It considers technical analysis undependable because chartists only buy or sell a security after an established trend has developed. Likewise, the theory finds fundamental analysis undependable due to the often-poor quality of information collected and its ability to be misinterpreted. Critics of the theory contend that stocks do maintain price trends over time – in other words, that it is possible to outperform the market by carefully selecting entry and exit points for investments. Ochish/sharhlash