2023-04-17 13:18:58
Technological Singularity: At What Cost Comes Progress? Part 1.
Imagine the moment when computers outgrow human intelligence, a period of time when it is impossible to control and reverse their advancement. This idea is often referred to as “technological singularity”—or simply “singularity”—and I will strictly limit its
meaning to the technological context only.
What is a technological singularity?
According to
Wikipedia, it is "a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization.” In other words, it is the scenario described above, when the product of the human intellect (i.e. machine) will outstrip its creators in every possible domain.
Law of Accelerating Returns
There is, certainly, a possibility that the singularity will never happen, as, fortunately or not, technological growth may hit its plateau before reaching the dawn of so-called sentient machines. However, let’s imagine that it will not happen. In this case, technology will, most probably, follow the “law of accelerating returns.”
On a fundamental level, this phenomenon simply means the exponential increase in the development of a field of study or work. One of the famous examples of this concept is Moore’s law, which claims that the number of transistors that can be put into a single chip doubles every two years or so.
Technology is subject to these accelerating returns if its development rate is proportional to its level of advancement (i.e. how good it is). Today, society is witnessing the unprecedented growth of this field, in specific areas like Artificial Intelligence (AI). In fact, it has been only about seven decades since the
time of coining the term “Artificial Intelligence”—there are humanoid robots today like Sophia that can mimic human expressions, speech, and even behavior.
Fundamental Challenge
If singularity will occur, then it will encompass
seismic consequences, which could be either positive or negative
depending on which direction humans will set to choose. So far, the concept of intelligence has been the defining characteristic of a human being, something that is present only in them. However, with the case of singularity, machines will possess and surpass the human intelligence, posing an existential risk to society. The very understanding of what it means to be human will be heavily questioned, not by “unself-conscious" philosophy, but rather through the pressure of real circumstances.
In conclusion, the technological singularity can bring unprecedented, even seismic, changes to the modern society, throwing a number of fundamental human ideas and beliefs into question. Despite the probability of whether it will occur, the phenomenon is profoundly exciting to explore from an intellectual standpoint. In the following posts, I will take a neutral approach to this concept, analyzing its every potential outcome.
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